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Who's Next To Leave MM? -- 2019 Edition Out with the old... 42 replies to this topic Started by JPope , Jun 24 2019 01:17 AM · 

Poll: MM Graduation Prediction 2019

Who's next to graduate Morning Musume?

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#1 JPope

JPope
  • Dick

Posted 24 June 2019 - 01:17 AM

It's been a couple of years since we last did this. With the arrival of three n00bs, graduation(s) are likely on the horizon. Who ya got?



#2 Molly

Molly
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Posted 24 June 2019 - 01:20 AM

Hopefully Ikuta. She's always been dead weight and I've never liked her. I wouldn't care if Akane went too, or Masaki.



#3 Zange

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Posted 24 June 2019 - 01:43 AM

So I picked Masaki and Fukumura... I have reasons for both of them, either one of them could be next but I couldn't decide down.

 

Masaki mainly because she's straining her voice so much. You could listen to any concert performance form the past two years and her voice sounds extremely rough. Not to mention there was a whole thing about how frustrated she gets with all the corrections staff make to her blog posts and such.

 

With Fukumura, she just doesn't seem as into it anymore. I remember her reaction to Chisaki joining was a bit on the meh side (but that was also two years ago). I think the only reason she hasn't left by now is because she was aiming to be H!P leader... but now she has that position. Plus she's been leader for what, five years come this November? Let someone else take the reins.



#4 JPope

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Posted 24 June 2019 - 04:58 AM

MM currently has three members closing in on aging-out: Mizuki will be 23 at the end of October, and not many make it too far beyond that point. Ayumi is only a few months behind her, and Ikuta will turn 22 in a couple of weeks. I expect we'll get a graduation announcement for one of those three before winter, and from another before next spring, and it'll probably be Mizuki then Ayu. In other words, say hello to the Erina Ikuta Era, ladies and gentlemen. Shouldn't last more than a year, although I actually think she'd make a good leader. 



#5 Saya

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Posted 24 June 2019 - 05:36 AM

Since Ikuta is holding on till after the Olympics I see a Spring 2021 graduation date for her.

I feel like Oda could leave to do solo work if management offered it to her.

#6 DonJuan

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  • ANGERME

Posted 24 June 2019 - 08:23 AM

Ikuta. She's over it.

Ayumi. I don't want her out, but she is old enough and someone has to go.

Nonaka, since Mei speaks English there is no use for her anymore.

I don't think Mizuki will leave before Ikuta, she will stay H!P leader for at least year. And I always think Masaki will leave and then she stays. But well.

Oh, and if one of 15ki turns out to be a good singer Sakura is on her way out, too.

#7 Madara

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  • ANGERME

Posted 24 June 2019 - 02:05 PM

I don't want any of them to leave. :nono:



#8 JPope

JPope
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Posted 24 June 2019 - 03:14 PM

I have a gut feeling that both Maa and Sakura will have to be told to graduate. Honestly, I think all of the remaining 9th - 11th will have to be told to leave. I just don't see what obvious prospects any of these girls have after MM. 



#9 DonJuan

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Posted 24 June 2019 - 03:24 PM

Mizuki: gravure idol
Ikuta: ("celebrity") golf or fitness model
Ayumi: stays with up front to do choreography (actually yes please make her the new choreographer)
Masaki: vanishes to become a behind-the-scenes music writer
Sakura: low-key graduated h!p soloist (like Maimi, Saki, etc.) that releases two digital singles and has some events every now and then (or she leaves up front to sign with a smaller company that will give her a Meimi-like solo career)

#10 Farrah

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Posted 24 June 2019 - 04:06 PM

I really, really hope it's Erina or someone equally useless.  Unfortunately, I have a feeling it will be someone more valuable.



#11 Anderei

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Posted 24 June 2019 - 04:18 PM

Mizuki: gravure idol
Ikuta: ("celebrity") golf or fitness model
Ayumi: stays with up front to do choreography (actually yes please make her the new choreographer)
Masaki: vanishes to become a behind-the-scenes music writer
Sakura: low-key graduated h!p soloist (like Maimi, Saki, etc.) that releases two digital singles and has some events every now and then (or she leaves up front to sign with a smaller company that will give her a Meimi-like solo career)


Is fitness modeling big in Japan? It seems like it would be really niche and therefore hard to make a career out of.

#12 JPope

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Posted 24 June 2019 - 04:36 PM

Question for someone who's deeper into the minutia of these things than I am: was there ever a time when MM's oldest average age was higher than MM '19 prior to the 15th gen additions?



#13 Anderei

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Posted 24 June 2019 - 04:43 PM

Question for someone who's deeper into the minutia of these things than I am: was there ever a time when MM's oldest average age was higher than MM '19 prior to the 15th gen additions?

No, but the 1999 lineup between Fukuda leaving and Maki joining comes close.

Edit: Wrong. The post Koharu lineup and that 5 member lineup we had before 9th gen joined for a few weeks were older.

#14 DonJuan

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Posted 24 June 2019 - 05:25 PM

^^^To be honest I don't know, I was only going through jobs I could see them doing. A real fitness model would probably need to buff up too, so the Up Up Wrestling department might be better for that.

She does have a really tiny waist though. I think Mizuki mentioned on insta that it was 50cm or something? As far as I know she hasn't been modeling since joining MM, though.

Then again, Up Front seems to get tiny jobs for Miyazaki Yuka as well so I can see them getting some for Ikuta, too.

#15 Anderei

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Posted 24 June 2019 - 05:44 PM

It was more curiosity than wondering if it’s a route she’d actually go. There’s an ex-AKB member who did a competition recently and I remember thinking her physique and everyone else’s on stage was so half assed, but it was just one comp and probably an amateur one.

I don’t think modeling is a route she’d pursue since she hasn’t tried to yet. They must all have some sort of idea what they want to do post-grad since as far as I know none of them opted for college.

#16 yuzu

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Posted 24 June 2019 - 06:42 PM

Here I am to vote Masaki again and again until it finally comes true.



#17 Farrah

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Posted 24 June 2019 - 06:43 PM

I really don't know why people want one of the only decent performers in the group to leave lol.  Not to mention one of the only members with even an ounce of personality.



#18 yuzu

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Posted 24 June 2019 - 06:43 PM

Because I can't stand her voice 



#19 Mugi

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  • モーニング娘。

Posted 24 June 2019 - 07:14 PM

I don't want any of them to leave. :nono:

 

I can understand that feeling but the cycle has to continue.  

 

I'm ready for Erina to lead so Mizuki can go.  Then Miki can have some of her lines haha.



#20 Saya

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Posted 24 June 2019 - 07:16 PM

Ready for Miki to leave because she’s disappointed me. She had a lot of potential at first, but her performances still feel amateurish...

#21 JPope

JPope
  • Dick

Posted 24 June 2019 - 07:17 PM

 

 

The post Koharu lineup and that 5 member lineup we had before 9th gen joined for a few weeks were older.

 

The 5-nin unit is the one I was curious about, because it was so small and had mostly long-term members. The immediate post-Koha lineup surprises me, though. Anyway, I wonder how many 20+ year-old members management wants to have in a group at any one time, especially when the bulk of those behind them are 18+? It just feels like we're going to see a lot of turn-over the next two years, similar to the one-and-a-half-year period from the end of 2010 to the middle of 2012 where 6 girls graduated and 9 girls joined. How many of the current members will perform in MM '21's Fall concert?



#22 JPope

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Posted 24 June 2019 - 07:25 PM

I really don't know why people want one of the only decent performers in the group to leave lol.  Not to mention one of the only members with even an ounce of personality.

 

Sato is a polarizing personality. I get why some don't like her, even if I personally agree with your view her. Because I'd be totally cool with it if Mizuki announced her graduation today,despite her being one of their few decent singers.



#23 Anderei

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Posted 24 June 2019 - 07:33 PM

The post Koharu lineup and that 5 member lineup we had before 9th gen joined for a few weeks were older.

 
The 5-nin unit is the one I was curious about, because it was so small and had mostly long-term members. The immediate post-Koha lineup surprises me, though. Anyway, I wonder how many 20+ year-old members management wants to have in a group at any one time, especially when the bulk of those behind them are 18+? It just feels like we're going to see a lot of turn-over the next two years, similar to the one-and-a-half-year period from the end of 2010 to the middle of 2012 where 6 girls graduated and 9 girls joined. How many of the current members will perform in MM '21's Fall concert?

The first post-Koharu single was February 2010 and Aika was the youngest at 17. Most of the group was in their 20s by that point.

They’re more at risk because of how big the group is. It’s obvious you’ve got until you’re 25 if there’s space.

#24 Farrah

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Posted 24 June 2019 - 08:09 PM

Because I can't stand her voice 

 

I'm not particularly fond of it either, but we're basically scraping the bottom of the barrel at this point vocally lol.  Nonetheless I think UFP will hold onto her for as long as they can since she sells so much merch.

 

Mizuki makes a lot of money for them with her photobooks but I really am ready for her to leave if only because I feel like said photobooks and passable (if painfully boring and emotionless) vocals are juuuust about all she contributes lol.  I have a feeling she'll be here for awhile too, though. I'm not super fond of Sakura, but they need her, so I hope she stays.

 

Sato is a polarizing personality.

 

If I'm entirely honest, my issue is that I don't understand why Masaki is so polarizing.  Everyone complains that the current lineup is bland or lacks personality compared to the olden days... but then they want to toss out the one girl who doesn't fit that description.  It really doesn't make any sense to me.  I'd get it if she also couldn't sing or was otherwise obnoxious (Koharu, anyone?)  but overall she's one of the most well rounded girls in the group and she's the only one right now with a persona that actually leaves an impression, something everyone claims to want.

 

Erina and Akane are the two I would be most okay with losing.  Maybe even Ayumi.  We've got enough foghorn voices, we can spare at least two.  Ayumi can dance but it doesn't even matter since their choreography is so terrible and simplistic lol.  



#25 DonJuan

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Posted 24 June 2019 - 08:12 PM

I'm ready for Masaki to go if she takes her craziest fans with her. I know it's the pettiest of petty reasons but boy do they annoy me.

#26 Farrah

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Posted 24 June 2019 - 08:21 PM

I don't interact with H!P fans outside this forum or I'd probably go insane, haha.  Idk, I'm not even in love with Masaki or anything (I'm not in love with anyone in the current roster) - but she fits the bill of what everyone agrees the group needs more of (not tone deaf, an ounce of personality), so it's kind of hilarious to me that people also want her gone.  Especially considering she's toned down every aspect of her persona hugely since her debut days, it's hard for me to understand why everyone finds her so annoying. 

 

Honestly?  She's one of the only girls I can imagine people talking about / remembering 5 years from now.  Most of them will graduate and get talked about roughly as much as members like Aika or Makoto - which is to say, deserved or not, they'll be mostly forgotten until they're in the news for announcing retirement or marriage.



#27 Anderei

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Posted 24 June 2019 - 08:22 PM

Because I can't stand her voice

 
I'm not particularly fond of it either, but we're basically scraping the bottom of the barrel at this point vocally lol.  Nonetheless I think UFP will hold onto her for as long as they can since she sells so much merch.
 
Mizuki makes a lot of money for them with her photobooks but I really am ready for her to leave if only because I feel like said photobooks and passable (if painfully boring and emotionless) vocals are juuuust about all she contributes lol.  I have a feeling she'll be here for awhile too, though. I'm not super fond of Sakura, but they need her, so I hope she stays.
 

Sato is a polarizing personality.

 
If I'm entirely honest, my issue is that I don't understand why Masaki is so polarizing.  Everyone complains that the current lineup is bland or lacks personality compared to the olden days... but then they want to toss out the one girl who doesn't fit that description.  It really doesn't make any sense to me.  I'd get it if she also couldn't sing or was otherwise obnoxious (Koharu, anyone?)  but overall she's one of the most well rounded girls in the group and she's the only one right now with a persona that actually leaves an impression, something everyone claims to want.
 
Erina and Akane are the two I would be most okay with losing.  Maybe even Ayumi.  We've got enough foghorn voices, we can spare at least two.  Ayumi can dance but it doesn't even matter since their choreography is so terrible and simplistic lol.

I don’t find Masaki to be any more interesting or charming than the other members. It doesn’t mean anything if the only noteworthy personality is that way for the wrong reasons. I probably would have thought she was cool when I was like 14 but as an adult she just irks me.

#28 Farrah

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Posted 24 June 2019 - 08:28 PM

It doesn’t mean anything if the only noteworthy personality is that way for the wrong reasons.

What has she done, though?  For the most part she keeps her mouth shut nowadays.  What, are we talking about the few times she was bratty to wota when she was like 13?  Idk, if anything that made me like her more considering a lot of wota are creeps, LOL.  I'm sorry, but I just don't get it.  All I got from her 20th anniversary interview was the image of a girl who is really dedicated to performing and keeping people on their toes.  Even a lot of Japanese fans appear to think her personality is being stifled too much, and god knows they love a goody two shoes so she can't be that bad.



#29 JPope

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Posted 24 June 2019 - 08:36 PM

I don't interact with H!P fans outside this forum or I'd probably go insane, haha.  Idk, I'm not even in love with Masaki or anything (I'm not in love with anyone in the current roster) - but she fits the bill of what everyone agrees the group needs more of (not tone deaf, an ounce of personality), so it's kind of hilarious to me that people also want her gone.  Especially considering she's toned down every aspect of her persona hugely since her debut days, it's hard for me to understand why everyone finds her so annoying. 

 

Honestly?  She's one of the only girls I can imagine people talking about / remembering 5 years from now.  Most of them will graduate and get talked about roughly as much as members like Aika or Makoto - which is to say, deserved or not, they'll be mostly forgotten until they're in the news for announcing retirement or marriage.

 

Personality is great unless it's a personality that you personally find annoying or otherwise rubs you the wrong way. I can see how Maa's personality would have that effect on some even if I personally love it. 

 

Haga is an interesting case for me. A year ago I'd have been thrilled to see her go, but she's become a little bit endearing in the interim, and she's still relatively young. I wouldn't be pissed if she left, but I'm not grabbing a pitchfork and torch to lead the mob to make it happen, either.



#30 DonJuan

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Posted 24 June 2019 - 08:39 PM

^^^^ Every time I try to get used to Masaki - because I don't even disagree; if we had more interesting characters Masaki wouldn't stick out so much, and she at least tries to not be a cookie cutter idol on stage - my interest goes down to zero because of her fans going crazy about her being the best singer, dancer, actress; the best on stage, the most stylish, the funniest, the purest, the most honest ... idol in the world.
I think Masaki is a kid that doesn't care about social standard which is refreshing, especially in a strict hierarchy like H!P. I think it also brings problems every now and then that she should at least consider at her age (though that was more of a problem for me when she was 17 and acted like she was 6; she's toned it down).

But it's honestly most of her fans. "There was a sea of emerald green glow sticks in Hokkaido, Masaki must be so popular to have so many fans so far away from Tokyo!" - no, she is from Hokkaido and that screenshot was from her homecoming call. "Masaki voiced a baby in a twitter animation she is widely known!!" - Sakura, Ayumi and Haruna (I think?) voiced mascots in some Pretty Cure movie which should be more widely known. "Management doesn't push Masaki they probably hate her!" - Masaki herself stated that she doesn't want too much responsibility and I'm sure Mizuki and Sakura are simply the safer bet in terms of pushing.

Those are some of the most annoying examples. There are several more.

I mean many girls have annoying fans. As a Zukki fan I didn't dar to go into her thread too often. But Masaki is pretty popular so she has more fans - and more annoying ones.