Morning Musume '16 Shinseiki Auditions

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Anderei
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Re: Morning Musume '16 Shinseiki Auditions

Post by Anderei »

As long as they think the girls are cute the wota will show up to shake their hands lol. Idol sales have almost nothing to do with real popularity. Those million sellers AKB pumps out? Everyone participates in their handshakes. As in AKB, SKE, NMB, ect. Yet they're struggling to sell concert tickets. MM are in a much smaller boat, because there really was not that big an increase in their brand (akb are in a bigger boat because despite peaking they're still relevant). This is why their appearances on anything important or noteworthy are so sporadic and rare, because they haven't fooled anybody.


Plus Billboard is still very much a supplemental chart that most aren't checking. If Oricon says 98k then as far as anyone other than hardcore fans are concerned they sold 98k and had a drop in sales.


MM's album sales really give away just how much of their popularity is just wota popularity. They can't get good album sales to save their lives.
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Re: Morning Musume '16 Shinseiki Auditions

Post by JPope »

I guarantee you this conversation is not going on in any UF boardroom:
 
Bean counter 1: Total physical sales show 166K, which translates into gross sales of about $1.33 million, and this does not count internet download sales. 
Bean counter 2: Woah, woah, woah, pump the brakes there, Chief. What is Oricon reporting?
Bean counter 1: 98K.
Bean counter 2: Well then, our perceived gross take is only $785K, and as we all know, that's what really matters. That extra $545K the wota spent doesn't count.
Bean counter 1: ...
 
Oricon vs. Billboard is a fun discussion for fans attempting to gauge fan appeal outside of the wota base, but that's where it ends. 166K is 166k to Up Front, and they don't much care much how it got to 166K. 
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Re: Morning Musume '16 Shinseiki Auditions

Post by MejraThea »

[quote="JPope"]
166K is 166k to Up Front, and they don't much care much how it got to 166K. 
[/quote]
 
You said it right there. They don't care how. So they don't truly work to actually get more, to become once again THE popular idol, to add girls because of talent and promise. They are ruined by their own complacency.
 
Anderei wasn't speaking of which sales matter, she was speaking of their actual popularity. Spinning it off onto how management thinks about their profit doesn't not aid in that discussion.
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Re: Morning Musume '16 Shinseiki Auditions

Post by JPope »

Billboard vs Oricon is irrelevant to the point I was making, which was that what the "MOAR TALENT" crowd (of which I am a long standing member) thinks MM needs to be successful isn't necessarily what UF thinks they need, because 166K is successful from their perspective. Oricon's number is not a metric they even consider. Bringing up Oricon at all doesn't aid in that discussion.
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Re: Morning Musume '16 Shinseiki Auditions

Post by MejraThea »

Not gonna lie, I'm thoroughly confused and I think I fucked up somewhere so ignore me.  :hahaha:
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Re: Morning Musume '16 Shinseiki Auditions

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My entire point was that the surge in interest in the MM brand is very overestimated, especially when as far as the general public is concerned (the few who care about them that is) their sales have dropped. I was never making a point about money at all especially because a huge part of the reason they do handshakes is to rank on Oricon because its the easiest way for idol groups to get publicity. I highly doubt that even at their lowest point this group ever stopped making money.
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Re: Morning Musume '16 Shinseiki Auditions

Post by Farrah »

[quote="Anderei"]
My entire point was that the surge in interest in the MM brand is very overestimated, especially when as far as the general public is concerned (the few who care about them that is) their sales have dropped. I was never making a point about money at all especially because a huge part of the reason they do handshakes is to rank on Oricon because its the easiest way for idol groups to get publicity. I highly doubt that even at their lowest point this group ever stopped making money.
[/quote]
 
Yep - the alleged surge in MM's popularity that so many international fans talk about is more just a by-product of H!P finally adapting to modern idol sales tactics.  It's great for them because money is money like JPope says but it sucks for those of us who know what complacency looks like and what it can do to a group (aka how I stopped following AKB48 in like 2012 after following them since debut LOL).  
 
Overall, I wish wota would start demanding talent rather than just lolis LOL but that will never change.  And as long as they can rely on wota, they have no real reason to put their resources into developing mainstream appeal or catering to international fan demands.  I've seen wota on 2ch and such making jokes about how clueless American fans are for wanting more than cute girls and upskirts but it is what it is.  
 
It's a win for H!P/UFP, it's a win for wota seeking jack off material... it's kind of a lose for everyone else, even the girls as many of them undergo nodule surgery due to H!P's refusal to invest in talent.  Wota culture has sucked a lot of life out of the idol industry, so much so that even huge acts like AKB48 have become completely irrelevant to the general public.
Last edited by Farrah on Wed Nov 30, 2016 12:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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al kusanagi
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Re: Morning Musume '16 Shinseiki Auditions

Post by al kusanagi »

All this talk about complacency being a new trend. That was literally the entire platinum era. They realized that no matter how much or little effort they put into the PVs and promotion, the same number of fans would buy it regardless.
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Re: Morning Musume '16 Shinseiki Auditions

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I don't disagree with that (and I think the complacency goes further back than that, it just became more obvious once competition started arriving on the scene), but at the time MM still felt like one of the best idol groups jpop had to offer even if they weren't the highest selling. Maybe it's because of the sheer number of groups out there today, but it just seems like there's so many better groups, even if we take talent out of the equation. And whereas it used to seem like anyone who wasn't MM in H!P got the scraps, now it's like they're bottom barrel, I guess because the other groups positions aren't quite as secure. Even their attempts to do anything interesting fall flat compared to other H!P groups, and there's so many smaller groups that are doing things more interesting than H!P could ever hope to. I like that H!P no longer feels like Morning Musume and Company but it's a shame that it almost seems like that's only happened at the expense of MM. Juice=Juice are the only group I feel Up Front tries less with than MM.
 
[quote="Farrah"]
 
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="Anderei" data-cid="202760" data-time="1480532016">
<div>
My entire point was that the surge in interest in the MM brand is very overestimated, especially when as far as the general public is concerned (the few who care about them that is) their sales have dropped. I was never making a point about money at all especially because a huge part of the reason they do handshakes is to rank on Oricon because its the easiest way for idol groups to get publicity. I highly doubt that even at their lowest point this group ever stopped making money.
[/quote]
 
Yep - the alleged surge in MM's popularity that so many international fans talk about is more just a by-product of H!P finally adapting to modern idol sales tactics.  It's great for them because money is money like JPope says but it sucks for those of us who know what complacency looks like and what it can do to a group (aka how I stopped following AKB48 in like 2012 after following them since debut LOL).  
 
Overall, I wish wota would start demanding talent rather than just lolis LOL but that will never change.  And as long as they can rely on wota, they have no real reason to put their resources into developing mainstream appeal or catering to international fan demands.  I've seen wota on 2ch and such making jokes about how clueless American fans are for wanting more than cute girls and upskirts but it is what it is.  
 
It's a win for H!P/UFP, it's a win for wota seeking jack off material... it's kind of a lose for everyone else, even the girls as many of them undergo nodule surgery due to H!P's refusal to invest in talent.  Wota culture has sucked a lot of life out of the idol industry, so much so that even huge acts like AKB48 have become completely irrelevant to the general public.
 
</div>
</blockquote>
 
Yeah, it's amazing how such a revolutionary group like AKB48 has become stale so quickly. All their attempts at being interesting and groundbreaking feel so overplayed and predictable now. Every group releases a yearly documentary, the teams get shuffled like once a year. They've sucked the life out of all their sister groups so that those girls can devote all their time to promoting AKB's singles, and all of the top dogs in the sister groups are holding concurrent positions in AKB now. They're announcing albums and then not releasing info for months, they haven't put out an original stage in years and apparently the number of theater performances is at an all time low. And they've cannibalized the market to the point that it'll probably never change unless they totally disappear. The number of girls they've had who have undergone vocal surgery is also pretty surprising.
 
And while AKB48 has always had a bit of a talent problem, especially because most of the best girls were hidden away in theater performances and b-sides, I can give MM credit for always putting in the effort even if the outcome lately hasn't been that great. Half of AKB48's senbatsu look like they don't give two shits once they're on stage. The current lineup does deserve some credit for looking like they're trying really hard not to suck.
Last edited by Anderei on Wed Nov 30, 2016 1:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Morning Musume '16 Shinseiki Auditions

Post by DonJuan »

[quote="Anderei"]
As long as they think the girls are cute the wota will show up to shake their hands lol.
[/quote]
 
Ogata :bandit: I mean ok, it seems like she can actually talk a bit (compared to the Tsubaki girls for example), but that and looks aside there's nothing that'd make her a good choice. Then again for an idol you need to be 90% cute and 10% something else (character > dancing/singing), so she's actually a good choice. 
 
[quote="Anderei"]
Juice=Juice are the only group I feel Up Front tries less with than MM.
[/quote]
 
Tsubaki. At least until they added the 2nd gen they felt like H!P's dumping ground or at least bad counterpart to Kobushi. But maybe they're gonna change that now, like doing a reverse Juice=Juice. They started off well with promoting J=J (weren't they like the first H!P group to get a billboard in years?), but since Senobi or around that time they just milk them through concerts.
 
 
[quote="Anderei"]
I actually think they've done the most of what they could with Karin. She's not all that charismatic off stage (there's a reason the Juice=Juice girls get nearly nonexistent solo work), she was never gonna be more than a lead singer/photobook type of gal.
 
Judging by the videos I watched of her in her group, Ayano is not a good singer. She has a lot of energy and that's about it.
[/quote]
 
True about Karin. Just thought that she was immensely popular as an Egg (much more than Rikako or whoever joined after her). Maybe they just debuted her too late to make best use of her loli potential. And if that's true about Ayano, then meh.
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Re: Morning Musume '16 Shinseiki Auditions

Post by Anderei »

Yeah, I didn't really include Tsubaki because we haven't seen the full details of their major debut and they're still pretty new. Up Front basically gave up on JJ after the first two years.
 
Karin was (and is) really popular, there's just not much else to do with her that works with her strengths. 
 
Also, if you want to check out Ayano for yourself, this is the channel of the group she was in. You'll pull up other stuff if you put their Japanese name into youtube as well.
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Re: Morning Musume '16 Shinseiki Auditions

Post by Purin-chama »

I really want Takase... Actually any of the longer term girls (Reina, Kage, Danbara, Hikaru) would be okay. I can see Kage debutting. 
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Re: Morning Musume '16 Shinseiki Auditions

Post by arcobaleno »

I can't shake this feeling I have that Maeda Kokoro is somehow going to be in there. I have zero opinion on her but I keep getting this vibe that she was picked and it's the oddest thing.
 
Now, out of all the KSS, the one I'm personally rooting for is Kodama Sakiko. She's really lively and cute, a good idol. I personally just don't see Ruru fitting into MM as it is. Hikaru and Reina fit the image more for me, and Kaede I can see on a good day. I'd still rather prefer they get somewhere better to utilize them.
 
At this point, I'm not concerned with talent anymore. There's many other groups out there focused on talent that also have the personality aspect and do it better, I bet. So it is what it is. More than anything, I just want a fun, interesting girl, someone to liven things up in a positive, happy way. A presence like that, that's what I want most.
 
(Yes, that's me waxing poetic for Sakiko.)
 
MM nowadays just seems so... cold, a lot. Even if they aren't behind the scenes, I just don't like how serious and tight they all seem. :/ I miss the times when the group was like Kobushi and ANGERME, one big dorky misfit family.
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Re: Morning Musume '16 Shinseiki Auditions

Post by Anderei »

We've thought a lot of girls were lively before they joined though, and Morning Musume managed to suck all that charm right out of them. Something about this group has turned it into a black hole of personality. Maybe all the history behind the group just puts too much pressure on them, and the fact that they'll never manage to live up to it just makes matters worse.
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Re: Morning Musume '16 Shinseiki Auditions

Post by arcobaleno »

[quote="Anderei"]
We've thought a lot of girls were lively before they joined though, and Morning Musume managed to suck all that charm right out of them. Something about this group has turned it into a black hole of personality. Maybe all the history behind the group just puts too much pressure on them, and the fact that they'll never manage to live up to it just makes matters worse.
[/quote]
 
Oh god, that's true....
 
I was looking forward to Ogata's personality for SO long, so... so, so, very long, and then... nothing.
 
Your theory is pretty viable, though. I could imagine that happening to me if I had that pressure on me.  :confused:
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Re: Morning Musume '16 Shinseiki Auditions

Post by TicTacAnyone »

Maeda Kokoro has a very very polished look to her, and I've been keeping my eye on her. I wouldn't be surprised for a second if she was introduced as a 13th member.
 
And the older girls may not fit the image of MM, but MM needs its image changed in a big way as it is... They need to be new again. They've all already developed a stage presence (the senior KSS, that is), they can work on their character and personality, imo. 
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Re: Morning Musume '16 Shinseiki Auditions

Post by arcobaleno »

[quote="TicTacAnyone"]
And the older girls may not fit the image of MM, but MM needs its image changed in a big way as it is... They need to be new again.
[/quote]
 
Good point with that. That echoes what Thea actually mentioned earlier in this thread, something I agree with. (Yes, me agreeing with Thea, shocking.  :ph34r:)
 
I feel like 13ki is going to be a turning point no matter who joins. Depending on who joins, it could be a big one or a small one, but this audition really feels... different from the rest as so far. Whether that turning point is positive or negative remains to be seen, but it feels like there's more anticipation in this audition because 12ki was just so controversial in the end.
 
But yeah, 1000% agree on them needing an image change. Very long overdue...
Last edited by arcobaleno on Sun Dec 04, 2016 9:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Morning Musume '16 Shinseiki Auditions

Post by Madara »

They're supposed to announce the 13th Gen additions today. I'm waiting...
 
On Facebook, Masaaki Kamiya says that Reina Ichioka's mom is abstaining from alcohol until Reina's debut. Here's hoping she gets to drink soon.
 
And I'll JOIN her! :drunk:
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Re: Morning Musume '16 Shinseiki Auditions

Post by DonJuan »

I prepare myself to be disappointed.
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Re: Morning Musume '16 Shinseiki Auditions

Post by showraniy »

Ooh, I can't wait!
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Re: Morning Musume '16 Shinseiki Auditions

Post by sayu1991 »

Fingers crossed for good singers!
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Re: Morning Musume '16 Shinseiki Auditions

Post by Shoujo Q »

I'm hoping for a miracle and someone breaks a few laws and streams the concert since it's being broadcast on BS SKY PerfecTV. I'm just hoping for more than 1 girl. That's all I really want. 
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Re: Morning Musume '16 Shinseiki Auditions

Post by Noa »

I had a dream that 13th gen is 5 members in including Ruru and someone named Maeda Kokoro.
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Re: Morning Musume '16 Shinseiki Auditions

Post by TicTacAnyone »

[quote="Shoujo Q"]
I'm hoping for a miracle and someone breaks a few laws and streams the concert since it's being broadcast on BS SKY PerfecTV. I'm just hoping for more than 1 girl. That's all I really want. 
[/quote]
 
Oh that's definitely gonna happen... I watched Sayumi and Kanon's graduation concerts on livestreams. They're usually on the chinese streaming sites and I'll be on the lookout. We've got about 5 hours still the concert starts though Q_Q
 
I'll probably be doing live translations on this stream and my tumblr.
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Re: Morning Musume '16 Shinseiki Auditions

Post by kira »

After all they've gone through with this audition I am setting my expectations very low at 1 new member. Around what time will it be?
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Re: Morning Musume '16 Shinseiki Auditions

Post by DonJuan »

Concert starts at 6pm Japanese time, in about 5 hours. Guess we'll know the members about 30 minutes in.
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Re: Morning Musume '16 Shinseiki Auditions

Post by Derby »

it starts in 5 minutes and here I am waiting for info  :f5:
 
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Re: Morning Musume '16 Shinseiki Auditions

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I'm right here with ya, Derby. It's 4am here but I'm awake and waiting.
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Re: Morning Musume '16 Shinseiki Auditions

Post by Derby »

DonJuan's been typing something for over 5 minutes already. It better be the names, pictures, profiles, hobbies and if they suck or not...
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Re: Morning Musume '16 Shinseiki Auditions

Post by sayu1991 »

I doubt they'd have announced the new members at the start of the concert. Then again, I have no idea how far into a concert they announced previous generations either. My fingers are crossed for Ruru even though she deserves better!
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