Morning Musume is doomed.

[Anderei]

[quote name='Petit Melon' timestamp='1311891117' post='104750']

GO MAKE A "MM IS DOOMED" THREAD ALREADY!!!! <img src='http://mm-bbs.org/public/style_emoticon ... dammit.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=':dammit:' />





[/quote]



They insisted.





Discuss why Morning Musume is never going to be popular again here and keep it out of other threads.



I guess you could discuss H!P as a whole, but discussing the downfall of C-ute, Berryz, or anyone else just isn't as interesting.

[al kusanagi]

Because wota destroyed them by tainting the group with their fandom making normal people want to stay far away, but then abandoned them for the downtown hack-factory.

[roddyreta]

As the old saying goes, it's tough to compete against your own legend.



Momusu has a great history, and the casual fan only remembers its pre-2003 past.



These days, Momusu pretty much stands for nostalgia. That's why only DMM gets invited to the top shows and music events.



In the end, current Momusu needs a great song and promotional campaign to break out of its slump.



I'm skeptical about Tsunku's ability to do this. He can still write great stuff, but I don't see him doing another Love Machine in this stage of his career. And if he could write one, he should probably give it to S/Mileage right now, because they're in a better position to take advantage of it.



Tsunku says he has a 3 year plan for Momusu, which is essentially an admission that it's going to be a while before they recover their footing.

[Melon]

I've already accepted they will never be the reigning morning glories again. Short of a name change I don't think anything could be done that propels them into superstardom again.

[Ap2000]

Another thread to discuss negative stuff about H!P ?

[Melon]

I'm sick of that shit clogging up the other MM threads.

[Haru]

Am I the only one that lol'd irl when Ap complained about a thread about negativity?

[Shoujo Q]

[quote name='Haru' timestamp='1311896437' post='104779']

Am I the only one that lol'd irl when Ap complained about a thread about negativity?

[/quote]



I'd only laugh if it was Turtle saying it.

[Pflaume]

You're welcome.

[Shoujo Q]

I Lub U Plum!



But honestly, if THIS group is anything to go by, Morning Musume will be around to UFA says stop. It was by some fluke that they managed to catch national attention with Love Machine. (Honestly, I'm still trying to figure it out because it's never been one of my favorite songs.)

Just because the group isn't selling hit records, doesn't mean no one is going to their concerts or buying their stuff.



But whatever, it's like a broken record around here. UFA never knew how to handle Musume's fame, it went down hill, stuff happened, they'll never be as big as they once were. It's been doomed since Tsunku wont let anyone else touch Musume's music, since their daytime show ended, since their sales dive bombed, since Maki left, Yuko left, Natumi left, Kago and Tsuji left, Rika and Mari left, Miki left, Hitomi left, Koharu left, Eri left. It goes on and on and on and on. Pick and excuse they are all valid options.

[roddyreta]

It wouldn't surprise me if Aika, 9th and 10th gen eventually got spun off into a re-named group.



Possible names: "Aika's army" or "The Riho Brigade."



Then DoriMomusu would just become Morning Musume, and just sing Love Machine a million times for the nostalgia crowd.



I hope Yuko sticks with her low-carb diet and invests heavily in Botox.

[Ap2000]

[quote name='Riho World' timestamp='1311904050' post='104798']



It wouldn't surprise me if Aika, 9th and 10th gen eventually got spun off into a re-named group.



Possible names: "Aika's army" [..]

[/quote]



That'd really doom all of Japan. I'd turn them into The Jaws Musume.

[Gerald]

[quote name='PKyu' timestamp='1311899139' post='104785']

[quote name='Haru' timestamp='1311896437' post='104779']

Am I the only one that lol'd irl when Ap complained about a thread about negativity?

[/quote]



I'd only laugh if it was Turtle saying it.

[/quote]

"Positivity" is my middle name <img src='http://mm-bbs.org/public/style_emoticon ... /noway.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=':noway:' />.



I know it's not quite the same thing but what sparked the huge upturn in AKB48's popularity, they went a couple of years selling fuck-all records and then it suddenly seemed to all go mad? Any lessons to be learned?



I think if Tsunku/UFA were capable of reviving MM or introducing a seriously successful new group they would have done it by now.

[Duncan]

[quote name='The Turtle Moves' timestamp='1311938933' post='104852']

I know it's not quite the same thing but what sparked the huge upturn in AKB48's popularity, they went a couple of years selling fuck-all records and then it suddenly seemed to all go mad? Any lessons to be learned?



I think if Tsunku/UFA were capable of reviving MM or introducing a seriously successful new group they would have done it by now.

[/quote]



Only spitballing here, but I think AKB48's rise in popularity can be linked to Densha Otoko and the resulting lessening of negativity toward otaku culture. For awhile there is was almost hip to be a geek. Or at least the topic of a lot of discussion. I remember a lot of nerds complaining about all the tourists coming in to Akihabara at the time. If "Aitakatta" came out after the Akihabara Massacre, for example, it might be a completely different story.



Their sales spike into the Oricon top 5 can also be linked to their switch to King Records. Plus a few singles before that they got their own TV show. So it might just be as simple as marketing.

[EmEl]

[quote name='PKyu' timestamp='1311900385' post='104790']

Just because the group isn't selling hit records, doesn't mean no one is going to their concerts or buying their stuff.

[/quote]

Yeah, UFA is printing money. Not doomed by a long shot.

Not being national sensations does not equal doomed.

[freezingkiss]

Personally for me, the reason why I am jumping ship is mainly because I am sick of the formula for the songs and PV's. I will still, however, buy the occasional concert, as the lives are still good. I am very, very sick of 'close up, long shot, close up, long shot, paaaaaan' and all the songs lately have been just terrible. The year started good with Kiss me Aishiteru, Maji Desu ka SKA, and Heroine ni Narou ka, but all of their most recent singles...argh.



Ai no Dangan, Momoiro Sparkling and Only You (even though it was a good song, it was ruined by Ai/Reina lead AGAIN and a very, very crappy PV) were let downs compared to the previous releases. Now with Sekaichi blah blah, Super long title MM single and Aa Yo ga Akeru, it feels like the same thing is happening again, and even though it has been said that the PV for Ai's last single will be really good, I doubt it. I also doubt Kanon, Erina and Mizuki will get lines, and what on earth was the point of adding them then? They are GREAT additions, yet it seems they will all probably go the unused, unloved route. What with no shuffles or new subgroups anymore, their chance of getting good media coverage is limited to H!P Time and Ustreamusume.



Other idols are more exciting at the moment, even groups like Momoiro Clover, Tokyo Girls Style and Super*Girls have great upbeat songs, tend to use all their members for something (even if some are used more than others, I do accept groups all have an 'ace' girl) and their PV's have more of a 'wow they actually spent money!' factor.



Don't get me wrong I am still a Risa/Maasa fan, but the problem is that I don't care as much about these groups as I used to, and I find myself wanting to find new groups/new artists who actually put a lot of effort into their songs/pvs, and reward them by giving them my money, instead of H!P. Which is a real shame because these girls are very talented, hardworking people. (I also know it's not any of the girls faults themselves, which this paragraph seems to convey, but that's not what I meant)



Does anyone have sales figures from this year compared to even just the past 4 years? I'd be curious to see how much they have actually changed.

[Ap2000]

[quote name='freezingkiss' timestamp='1311946939' post='104870']



Does anyone have sales figures from this year compared to even just the past 4 years? I'd be curious to see how much they have actually changed.

[/quote]



J-Ongaku has sales for a lot of artists:

http://j-ongaku.org/wiki/Morning_Musume#Discography



Looking at this list, it's amazing for how long already MM has been constantly selling below 65k, with the sole exception of Nanchatte Renai.

[freezingkiss]

Big drop between Sexy 8 Beat and Platinum 9 Disc there. O_o I wonder if the sales will go up with Ai's graduation then drop dramatically for the single after that?

[roddyreta]

[quote name='Ap2000' timestamp='1311952311' post='104876']

[quote name='freezingkiss' timestamp='1311946939' post='104870']



Does anyone have sales figures from this year compared to even just the past 4 years? I'd be curious to see how much they have actually changed.

[/quote]



J-Ongaku has sales for a lot of artists:

http://j-ongaku.org/wiki/Morning_Musume#Discography



Looking at this list, it's amazing for how long already MM has been constantly selling below 65k, with the sole exception of Nanchatte Renai.

[/quote]



Yeah, a lot of people like to blame Takahashi Ai for Momusu's sales decline, but it happened long before she became leader.

[Haru]

^ Yeah, but comparing the songs with Ai as lead compared to the "golden era" songs...

I'll admit I liked most of the songs during Ai's reign of leader. "Shouganai Yume Oibito" is one of my favourite songs. But it's hard for the Ai singles to compete with songs like "Koko ni Iruzee!" and "Go Girl."



The sole reason "Nanchatte" sold the way it did was it was the fortieth single. Probably a lot of it had to do with the two different songs. We don't know how many of each version sold. Might've been a lot of wota buying LEs and REs to get both c/ws.



I still say a lot of it has to do with marketing. Hate to bring up the AKB topic again, but looking at "Nanchatte," if they had different songs for each LE, it would sell a lot nicer. Berryz with "Maji Bomber" isn't a good example since Berryz sale are always low as fuck. (Really a shame since they're essentially the senpai of H!P now and pretty much where all the talent is)

The lack of money being used is another thing. Compare an AKB PV to any other PVs. Sure, some of them have been pretty badass this year; but compare to year's passed.

[Farrah]

[quote name='Ap2000' timestamp='1311952311' post='104876']

[quote name='freezingkiss' timestamp='1311946939' post='104870']

Does anyone have sales figures from this year compared to even just the past 4 years? I'd be curious to see how much they have actually changed.

[/quote]



J-Ongaku has sales for a lot of artists:

http://j-ongaku.org/...ume#Discography



Looking at this list, it's amazing for how long already MM has been constantly selling below 65k, with the sole exception of Nanchatte Renai.

[/quote]



Looking at this, one can clearly see that if you put out a decent song and put more than a nickel into the PV, you can usually get something resembling decent sales. Look at the sales spike between Osaka Koi no Uta and Iroppoi Jirettai, for example. I don't know about you, but I've always considered Osaka Koi no Uta's PV to be extremely boring, whereas Iroppoi Jirettai was the single that turned me into a fan - flamenco, fire, flags, woo!



Other spikes include Resonant Blue (one of my favorite songs, and a PV with something resembling a budget - not one of my favorites, but hey, it had multiple scenes rather than a simple chop job of dance shot + close up shot!) Shouganai Yume Oibito was their most recent #1 single, and again, one of my favorite song/PV combinations. Nanchatte Renai which is also a favorite of mine (one of maybe three Momusu songs EVER to be included on my iPod - I don't really listen to idol music much, I'm in it for the pretty girls in pretty costumes) was a strong song, and although the PV was somewhat generic, it was well directed and looked really sleek/professional, imo. Good song, good video, decent promotion = sales.



Someone at UFA needs to realize that you have to put money INTO something if you want to get money out of it. Of course, UFA is kind of a shit agency and I imagine they're pretty content with Momusu's mediocre sales + wota money from concerts, since I imagine Momusu is probably one of their highest selling acts, if not their highest selling act.



I don't think MM are doomed - despite their low sales figures, they still almost always place in the top 5 on Oricon, and you can't do that with merely wota sales. The fact is, nothing lasts forever. MM are older than just about any active girl group in Japan. AKB48 are simply the new kids on the block. There will be others, and in a few years time, AKB48 will be in the same position as MM, and it won't be because they're not good anymore or because they have nothing to offer - it will be because people have simply grown tired of them. Everything in pop music has an expiration date (though there is more leeway for solo artists).

[roddyreta]

I don't deny the power of marketing, but I just think Momusu has gone stale.



I've only been a fan for two years, but I already feel like I have their formula memorized. Ai-Reina leads with PVs that always follow the same format. Only major departure has been Maji Desu ka Ska! That was more of a group song with equitable line distribution. The PV was pretty cheesy and cheap looking, but at least it was something new and fun. I feel bad that single wasn't more successful, because it seemed like a refreshing change of pace. Only You was okay (weird choice for a summer song), but it was more of the same old stuff.



Still, I get the feeling that Tsunku will change things dramatically with Ai leaving. Too many new young members will make it difficult to follow the old formula. So hopefuly things will change for the better. Otherwise we're going to see more and more of DMM.

[strawberryjam]

[quote name='Farrah' timestamp='1311955522' post='104884']

Other spikes include Resonant Blue (one of my favorite songs, and a PV with something resembling a budget - not one of my favorites, but hey, it had multiple scenes rather than a simple chop job of dance shot + close up shot!)

[/quote]

Not really. The main PV promoted for Resonant Blue was essentially a dance shot.

[EmEl]

[quote name='Farrah' timestamp='1311955522' post='104884']Someone at UFA needs to realize that you have to put money INTO something if you want to get money out of it. Of course, UFA is kind of a shit agency and I imagine they're pretty content with Momusu's mediocre sales + wota money from concerts, since I imagine Momusu is probably one of their highest selling acts, if not their highest selling act.

[/quote]

Right, they are content. Because they are making money. They don't really need to realize anything. The only people complaining are the fans who are wishcasting their favorite idols were once again number one. Are they a terrible agency because they won't do what all these armchair managers think will work? I don't believe it's just as easy as putting money into a super PV and suddenly there are sales. Maybe it is, but that's the point, I'm not a manager of an agency and I don't pretend to know what drives the industry.



Why should UFA generate more risk and spend more money on the nebulous hope that maybe they'll get more sales? They're a shit agency because they found a formula that works? They seem like a pretty good agency to me: one that has kept a brand alive for over a decade and continues to turn a profit. That's all a business should want. Do you know how many tiny idol groups there are that will never make it as big as Morning Musume is currently? Yet, they also continue to chug along. Look at what UFA was able to do with S/mileage. They were able to get 10,000 people to "beg" for their debut by sending in a smile, and they released a debut single that sold over 20,000 in its first week. Most idol groups would kill to have those sales, and S/mileage got it just because of their association with their agency. Otherwise they would have just been just another idol group in the idol boom of 2010.



They may not be the queens of pop; but, in the world of idols, Morning Musume has it made.

[Farrah]

UFA are a shit agency because not even their biggest act (Morning Musume) has any notable mainstream success anymore - they can't even get on any decent shows to promote their music. Momusu are seen by most as a lame group of washed up idols whose only real fans are creepy, 40+ year old wota. UFA apparently has no desire to try and dispel this - yes, Momusu are fairly successful, but I do think they have potential to be more successful if someone actually decided to put some real effort into them.

The group will never be A BIG DEAL ™ like they were, no, those days are over. And yes, things could be worse for them. . . but just because things could be worse doesn't mean they couldn't be better.



From what my Japanese friends have told me, no one listens to Morning Musume and even if they did, no one would ever admit to it because they're just about as uncool as you could possibly get with people my age. Teenage girls were once Morning Musume's core market and they have completely alienated them by churning out shitty songs and terrible videos with a $10 budget because hey, as long as the wota are happy, who gives a damn? Afterall, the wota are just attending for some in-concert panty shots, they'll buy whatever you shove in their face. I'd say maybe 1/8th of Momusu's sales come from the general public. So instead of trying to grow and expand, they pander to wota and settle for less.



I think it's sad that UFA has decided to continue simmering in this nice cushy spot where 80% of their sales come from wota, because there really isn't any reason too. 40,000 copies of a single is great and all, and #7 or #5 on the chart isn't bad, but they could be getting 80,000 sales and #3 and #2 a lot more often if they wanted to.



Also, I am aware of all of those itty-bitty unheard of idol groups who scrape by, doing performances in stores and such, but I fail to see how their lack of success is evidence that the H!P powers that be should continue not giving a shit.



Also, I was not aware that that version of the Resonant Blue video was the one they promoted with. Hm. Maybe it was the cool/sexy concept of the single? The lack of ridiculous costumes? I honestly don't know. I think they appeared on a couple of major music shows, though?

[Anderei]

[quote name='Farrah' timestamp='1311959623' post='104890']





Also, I was not aware that that version of the Resonant Blue video was the one they promoted with. Hm. Maybe it was the cool/sexy concept of the single? The lack of ridiculous costumes? I honestly don't know. I think they appeared on a couple of major music shows, though?

[/quote]



I like to go to Generasia because it has all the covers for a single, plus it's charting, sales, and TV performances. Here's what it has for Resonant Blue:



TV performances

[2008.04.18] Ongaku Senshi MUSIC FIGHTER

[2008.04.21] Utaban

[2009.02.04] Collabo Labo





And since we were talking a lot about Nanchatte Renai's sales, here's the performances for that if anyone is curious:



TV performances

[2009.07.22] Saishin Hits Wednesday J-POP

[2009.08.09] MUSIC JAPAN

[2009.08.14] Music Station

[2009.08.21] Minna de Utaou! Family Song

[2009.08.21] Music Fighter

[2009.08.22] MelodiX!

[2009.08.30] Osaka Hashissou Stage West Wind

[Farrah]

O: Nanchatte got Music Fighter, Music Station, AND Music Japan. I think Melodix is pretty good too? I imagine that certain contributed to it's uncharacteristically high sales.

[Anderei]

Looking at their recent singles, Music Japan seems to be a standard for them.



Kimagure Princess



[2009.11.01] MUSIC JAPAN

[2009.11.06] Music Fighter



Onna ga Medatte Naze Ikenai



TV performances

[2010.02.02] Utaban

[2010.02.12] Ongaku Senshi MUSIC FIGHTER

[2010.02.14] MUSIC JAPAN



Seishun Collection



TV performances

[2010.05.30] MUSIC JAPAN

[2010.06.12] Happy Music

[2010.06.13] Uta no Rakuen



Onna to Otoko no Lullaby Game



[2010.11.28] MUSIC JAPAN



Maji Desu ka Ska!



[2011.03.08] Melodix

[2011.04.01] Happy Music

[2011.04.11] Music Japan



Only You



[2011.06.10] Happy Music

[2011.06.19] Music Japan







Since the 50th single is coming up, I wonder if maybe it'll go along the same lines as Nanchatte Renai did and get all the extra tv performances + boosted sales.

[Duncan]

Man, I'd just be happy seeing them on MusicStation again.

[roddyreta]

Well, Momusu's the longest surviving idol group in history.



The fact that they don't appeal to young people isn't shocking -- young people want to listen to their own music, not music from a prior generation.



UFA does a lot of things wrong, but I can't blame them for a decline that in many ways is inevitable.



I do blame them, however, for the severity of the decline, and their penny-wise/pound-foolish attitude toward things.